Fleetwood Town vs Crawley Town

Fleetwood Town

Preview

15:00

Crawley Town

3/20/2027

League Two · Round 36Highbury Stadium

Big match

50%

Fleetwood Town

model favours

50%23%27%

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Fleetwood Town50%

×Draw23%

Crawley Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Fleetwood Town

1.77

Crawley Town

1.23

Fleetwood Town creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.73

creates per match

1.51

0.95

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.73

Crawley Town

1.51

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.95

Crawley Town

1.80

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.23scores less

Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

73%

Fleetwood Town or Crawley Town

77%

Draw or Crawley Town

50%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

27%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

83%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

53%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

26%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

35%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

65%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.95 · 6 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.73 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

50%

level

23%

Crawley Town scores more

27%

Fleetwood Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Fleetwood Town

Balanced

Crawley Town

Balanced

49%PossessionBiggest gap55%

67%Pass accuracy71%

11.6Shots12.7

1.39xG1.41

Fleetwood TownCrawley Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3

Fleetwood Town

0

Draws

2

Crawley Town

Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%

1–01–22–11–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

WWWWD

Town

DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff