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Fleetwood Town vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Barnsley
Barnsley
9/29/2018League OneLeague One · Round 10Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Fleetwood Town36%
×Draw26%
Barnsley38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.30
Barnsley
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 121 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.30
Barnsley
1.57

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.14
Barnsley
1.30

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
62%
Fleetwood Town or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
64%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%
Barnsley wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
73%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
37%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%
Barnsley 1+ goals
74%
Barnsley 2+ goals
39%
Barnsley 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
48%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Barnsley attack 1.57 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
36%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
38%

Barnsley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Fleetwood Town 1–3 Barnsley

Barnsley beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 in League One on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood.