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Flamurtari vs Luftetari Gjirokaster — Superliga 2018

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luftetari Gjirokaster
Luftetari Gjirokaster
11/23/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 13Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Flamurtari52%
×Draw24%
Luftetari Gjirokaster24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.68
Luftetari Gjirokaster
1.07

Flamurtari creates 57% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.30
Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.75

allows per match

Flamurtari
1.39
Luftetari Gjirokaster
2.06

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
76%
Flamurtari or Luftetari Gjirokaster
76%
Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster
48%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
28%
Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
81%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
50%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
24%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals
66%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals
29%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
68%
Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.30 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + Flamurtari defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Flamurtari scores more
52%
level
24%
Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more
24%

Flamurtari at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Luftetari Gjirokaster

Flamurtari and Luftetari Gjirokaster drew 1-1 in Superliga on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari in Vlorë.