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Flamengo vs Fluminense — Serie A 2026

Flamengo
Flamengo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fluminense
Fluminense
11/11/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 34Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Flamengo48%
×Draw28%
Fluminense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
1.33
Fluminense
0.86

Flamengo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Flamengo
1.60
Fluminense
0.80

allows per match

Flamengo
0.93
Fluminense
1.06

finishing

Flamengo+0.45scores more
Fluminense+0.03on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Fluminense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
76%
Flamengo or Fluminense
72%
Draw or Fluminense
52%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
22%
Fluminense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
74%
Flamengo 2+ goals
38%
Flamengo 3+ goals
15%
Fluminense 1+ goals
58%
Fluminense 2+ goals
21%
Fluminense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
66%
Fluminense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.60 + Fluminense defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fluminense attack 0.80 + Flamengo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Flamengo scores more
48%
level
28%
Fluminense scores more
24%

Flamengo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo vs Fluminense

Flamengo and Fluminense drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.