Flamengo 0–3 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats | Serie A

Flamengo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico-MG

11/29/2023

Serie A · Round 36Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Flamengo49%

×Draw26%

Atletico-MG25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Flamengo

1.46

Atletico-MG

0.96

Flamengo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Flamengo

1.60

Atletico-MG

0.98

allows per match

Flamengo

0.93

Atletico-MG

1.31

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Flamengo+0.45scores more

Atletico-MG-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

75%

Flamengo or Atletico-MG

74%

Draw or Atletico-MG

51%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

24%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

77%

Flamengo 2+ goals

43%

Flamengo 3+ goals

18%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

62%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

25%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

66%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.60 + Atletico-MG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atletico-MG attack 0.98 + Flamengo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Flamengo scores more

49%

level

26%

Atletico-MG scores more

25%

Flamengo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff