Flamengo SP U20 vs Osasco Audax U20

Flamengo SP U20

Preview

18:00

Osasco Audax U20

8/11/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 11

45%

Flamengo SP U20

model favours

45%26%29%

Flamengo SP U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2045%

×Draw26%

Osasco Audax U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo SP U20Expected goals in this matchOsasco Audax U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.12

Flamengo SP U20

1.47

Osasco Audax U20

1.12

Flamengo SP U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20

1.00

Osasco Audax U20

1.11

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20

1.13

Osasco Audax U20

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Osasco Audax U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw

71%

Flamengo SP U20 or Osasco Audax U20

74%

Draw or Osasco Audax U20

55%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+

22%

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals

77%

Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals

43%

Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals

18%

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals

67%

Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals

31%

Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Osasco Audax U20 away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.11 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more

45%

level

26%

Osasco Audax U20 scores more

29%

Flamengo SP U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Flamengo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Osasco Audax U20 score first in only 27% of matches
Both teams score in only 18% of Osasco Audax U20’s matches
Flamengo SP U20 sit 30, Osasco Audax U20 9 in the table
Flamengo SP U20 and Osasco Audax U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WDLLW

U20

WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff