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Flamengo SP U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
Preview
18:00
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
7/31/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 9
39%
Gremio Prudente U20
model favours
33%28%39%

Flamengo SP U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2033%
×Draw28%
Gremio Prudente U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP U20
1.12
Gremio Prudente U20
1.25

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.00
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.13
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw
61%
Flamengo SP U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
72%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
67%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
13%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
67%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
31%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
10%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
71%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
36%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more
33%
level
28%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
39%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Flamengo SP U20 sit 30, Gremio Prudente U20 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDLLW
U20
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Flamengo SP U20 host Gremio Prudente U20

July 31, 2026: Flamengo SP U20 take on Gremio Prudente U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.