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Flamengo RJ U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
Preview
20:00
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
9/15/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 17
60%
Flamengo RJ U17
model favours
60%20%21%

Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1760%
×Draw20%
Gremio U1721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo RJ U17
2.33
Gremio U17
1.32

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17
2.18
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17
1.32
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw
79%
Flamengo RJ U17 or Gremio U17
80%
Draw or Gremio U17
40%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
38%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
90%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
67%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
41%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
73%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
38%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
74%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 2.18 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.33

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
60%
level
20%
Gremio U17 scores more
21%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Flamengo RJ U17 score first in only 20% of matches
  • Flamengo RJ U17 have won 3 in a row
  • Flamengo RJ U17 are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 73% over 2.5)
  • Flamengo RJ U17 sit 5, Gremio U17 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
WWWDD
U17
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flamengo RJ U17 face Gremio U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Flamengo RJ U17 hosting Gremio U17. Match starts September 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.