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Fløya vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Fløya
Fløya
PST
11:00
Floro
Floro
8/29/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fløya34%
×Draw21%
Floro46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
1.85
Floro
2.17

Floro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fløya
1.10
Floro
1.20

allows per match

Fløya
3.15
Floro
2.60

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
54%
Fløya or Floro
79%
Draw or Floro
66%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
17%
Floro wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
84%
Fløya 2+ goals
55%
Fløya 3+ goals
28%
Floro 1+ goals
89%
Floro 2+ goals
64%
Floro 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
42%
Floro (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

Floro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 1.10 + Floro defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Floro attack 1.20 + Fløya defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fløya scores more
34%
level
21%
Floro scores more
46%

Floro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Floro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fløya host Floro

August 29, 2021: Fløya take on Floro in 2. Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fløya host Floro at Fløyabanen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.