FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–1 FK Trakai: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Trakai

Renan Oliveira 90+5', 90+3'

G. Paulauskas 52'

8/31/2022

Cup · Quarter-finalsVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius52%

×Draw21%

FK Trakai27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchFK Trakai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.55

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.20

FK Trakai

1.55

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

3.29

creates per match

2.40

0.71

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

3.29

FK Trakai

2.40

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.71

FK Trakai

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

FK Trakai →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

73%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or FK Trakai

79%

Draw or FK Trakai

48%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

31%

FK Trakai wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

89%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

64%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

37%

FK Trakai 1+ goals

79%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

46%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

66%

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

FK Trakai away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 3.29 + FK Trakai defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.20

FK Trakai attack 2.40 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

52%

level

21%

FK Trakai scores more

27%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

K. Kazukolovas

14'

I. Tatomirović← M. Milićković

20'

D. Malzinskas

41'

A. Dolznikov

41'

47'

52'

56'

59'

62'

D. Bilonoh← G. Paulauskas

67'

F. Kyeremeh← F. Ourega

67'

S. Mikoliūnas← G. Jarusevičius

73'

E. Onah← R. Filipavičius

78'

82'

90+6'

90+3'

90+5'

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: V. Cheburin

14'▲I. Tatomirović←▼M. Milićković

67'▲F. Kyeremeh←▼F. Ourega

67'▲S. Mikoliūnas←▼G. Jarusevičius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

TatomirovićKyeremehMikoliūnasKazlauskasBurbaMikulenasMamićDukaTadicPiliukaitisKashkenBuff

Manager: Pablo Ferreiro

62'▲D. Bilonoh←▼G. Paulauskas

73'▲E. Onah←▼R. Filipavičius

FK Trakai substitutes

BilonohOnahŠveistrysRimpaGumbaravičiusMelashenkoGrigaravičiusRamanauskasDombrauskis

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat FK Trakai 2-1 in Cup on August 31, 2022.

Goals: G. Paulauskas (52'), Renan Oliveira (90+3', 90+5').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai