FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–1 FK Trakai: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Trakai

R. Baravykas 90+2'

A. Gurenko 90'

3/15/2019

A Lyga · Round 3Vilniaus Sportimos maniežas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius58%

×Draw22%

FK Trakai20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchFK Trakai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.01

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.90

FK Trakai

1.01

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 88% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 106 away

2.18

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.18

FK Trakai

1.09

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.92

FK Trakai

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

FK Trakai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

80%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or FK Trakai

78%

Draw or FK Trakai

42%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

34%

FK Trakai wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

85%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

56%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

29%

FK Trakai 1+ goals

64%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

27%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

75%

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 142 matches

FK Trakai away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.61 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.18 + FK Trakai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

FK Trakai attack 1.09 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

58%

level

22%

FK Trakai scores more

20%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Vareika← L. Antal

41'

R. Baravykas← V. Filipov

46'

E. Stočkūnas← V. Borovskis

64'

J. Januševskij← L. Traore

78'

A. Gurenko← T. Moffi

85'

S. Olberkis← M. Vareika

90'

A. Gurenko

90+2'

R. Baravykas

FK

55

Švedkausk

33

▼

5

20

8

6

10

▼

24

77

9

7

▼

Moffi

56

Brănescu

5

Slijngard

11

▼

Filipov

6

Adili

13

Mikoliūna

8

▼

7

4

16

10

22

Manager: M. Zub

6'▲M. Vareika←▼L. Antal

41'▲R. Baravykas←▼V. Filipov

85'▲S. Olberkis←▼M. Vareika

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

17Vareika23Baravykas2Olberkis1Vitkauskas3Freidgeimas99Čipkus96Jarusevičius

Manager: A. Skarbalius

46'▲E. Stočkūnas←▼V. Borovskis

64'▲J. Januševskij←▼L. Traore

78'▲A. Gurenko←▼T. Moffi

FK Trakai substitutes

75Stočkūnas15Januševskij41Gurenko14Kodz16Ramanauskas49Čyžas99Šarkauskas

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and FK Trakai drew 1-1 in A Lyga on March 15, 2019.

Goals: A. Gurenko (90'), R. Baravykas (90+2').

The match was played at Vilniaus Sportimos maniežas (Vilnius).

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai