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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Preview
16:30
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
8/23/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 28LFF stadionas
Big match
58%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
model favours
58%23%19%

Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius58%
×Draw23%
Džiugas Telšiai19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 95% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 100 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.14
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88
Džiugas Telšiai
1.52

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
81%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Džiugas Telšiai
77%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
42%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
34%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
84%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
54%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
28%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
61%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
24%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
75%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.88 · 127 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.83

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
58%
level
23%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
19%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 3 in a row
  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius score first in only 29% of matches
  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 70% of their home games
  • 39% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 31% of FK Zalgiris Vilnius’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vilnius
WWW
Telšiai
DDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai — Match Preview

FK Zalgiris Vilnius face Džiugas Telšiai on August 23, 2026 in this A Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius host Džiugas Telšiai at LFF stadionas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.