FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga — A Lyga 2026
FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 3 in a row
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 111+ matches
FK Zalgiris Vilnius57%
Banga19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 95% more chances
Season form · 127 home / 111 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.88 · 127 matches
Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 111 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Banga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.72
Banga attack 0.87 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Banga are unbeaten in 5 straight
- Banga score first in only 27% of matches
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius score first in only 29% of matches
- Both teams score in only 27% of Banga’s matches
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 70% of their home games
- 31% of FK Zalgiris Vilnius’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FK Zalgiris Vilnius host Banga on Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 16:30. The match is part of the A Lyga 2026/2027 season.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga — Match Preview
FK Zalgiris Vilnius face Banga on August 16, 2026 in this A Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius host Banga at LFF stadionas.
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