FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Banga: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Banga

H. Vidémont 17'

8/7/2020

A Lyga · Round 14Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius57%

×Draw24%

Banga20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.91

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.74

Banga

0.91

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 91% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 110 away

2.17

creates per match

0.88

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.17

Banga

0.88

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.93

Banga

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

80%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Banga

76%

Draw or Banga

43%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

32%

Banga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

82%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

52%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

25%

Banga 1+ goals

60%

Banga 2+ goals

23%

Banga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

74%

Banga (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 132 matches

Banga away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.17 + Banga defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.74

Banga attack 0.88 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

57%

level

24%

Banga scores more

20%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

17'

25'

28'

42'

42'

42'

46'

46'

V. Antužis← S. Rakauskas

66'

M. Karamarko← R. Ennin

75'

L. Antal

75'

A. Kaluđerović← L. Antal

75'

J. Bičkus← D. Lukošius

82'

P. Lotužys← D. Norvilas

88'

E. Gertmonas

90+1'

M. Vorobjovas

FK

Banga

97

10

46

5

32

14

▼

Rakauskas

7

▼

Norvilas

15

Pavlyk

16

Yoshikawa

13

▼

12

1

5

15

26

13

88

▼

Kuklys

11

⚽

Vidémont

33

Šimkus

4

Vorobjova

8

▼

Antal

7

▼

Ennin

Manager: A. Baga

46'▲K. Bolha←▼M. Kuklys

66'▲M. Karamarko←▼R. Ennin

75'▲A. Kaluđerović←▼L. Antal

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

19Bolha31Karamarko99Kaluđerović12Berkovec14Uzėla17Vareika24Burba96Jarusevičius

Manager: T. Tamošauskas

46'▲V. Antužis←▼S. Rakauskas

75'▲J. Bičkus←▼D. Lukošius

82'▲P. Lotužys←▼D. Norvilas

Banga substitutes

19Antužis21Bičkus23Lotužys8Toleikis27Bračkus37Venckus55Bertašius

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Banga 1-0 in A Lyga on August 7, 2020.

Goals: H. Vidémont (17').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga