FK Ventspils 1–0 Metta / LU: Result & Stats

FK Ventspils

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metta / LU

11/26/2020

Virsliga · Round 26Olimpiskā centra Ventspils Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Ventspils60%

×Draw21%

Metta / LU18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK VentspilsExpected goals in this matchMetta / LU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.98

FK Ventspils

1.98

Metta / LU

0.98

FK Ventspils creates 102% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 107 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

0.97

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

FK Ventspils

1.62

Metta / LU

1.00

allows per match

FK Ventspils

0.97

Metta / LU

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Metta / LU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Ventspils ↓

Metta / LU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Ventspils or draw

82%

FK Ventspils or Metta / LU

79%

Draw or Metta / LU

40%

Winning margin

FK Ventspils wins by 2+

36%

Metta / LU wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Ventspils 1+ goals

86%

FK Ventspils 2+ goals

59%

FK Ventspils 3+ goals

31%

Metta / LU 1+ goals

62%

Metta / LU 2+ goals

26%

Metta / LU 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Ventspils (draw refunded)

77%

Metta / LU (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Ventspils at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Metta / LU away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Ventspils attack 1.62 + Metta / LU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.98

Metta / LU attack 1.00 + FK Ventspils defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FK Ventspils scores more

60%

level

21%

Metta / LU scores more

18%

FK Ventspils at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Ventspils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff