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FK Ventspils vs BFC Daugavpils — Virsliga 2019

FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
4/11/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 8Ventspils 2. pamatskolas Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Ventspils56%
×Draw24%
BFC Daugavpils20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Ventspils
1.74
BFC Daugavpils
0.94

FK Ventspils creates 85% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

creates per match

FK Ventspils
1.62
BFC Daugavpils
0.91

allows per match

FK Ventspils
0.97
BFC Daugavpils
1.86

finishing

FK Ventspils+0.00on par
BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Ventspils ↓

BFC Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Ventspils or draw
80%
FK Ventspils or BFC Daugavpils
76%
Draw or BFC Daugavpils
44%

Winning margin

FK Ventspils wins by 2+
31%
BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Ventspils 1+ goals
82%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
52%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
25%
BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
61%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
24%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
73%
BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Ventspils at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

BFC Daugavpils away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.86 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Ventspils attack 1.62 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

BFC Daugavpils attack 0.91 + FK Ventspils defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Ventspils scores more
56%
level
24%
BFC Daugavpils scores more
20%

FK Ventspils at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Ventspils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Ventspils vs BFC Daugavpils

BFC Daugavpils beat FK Ventspils 1-0 in Virsliga on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ventspils 2. pamatskolas Stadionā in Ventspils.