FK Trakai 1–3 Kauno Žalgiris: Result & Stats

FK Trakai

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Kauno Žalgiris

11/5/2023

A Lyga · Round 35Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

FK Trakai30%

×Draw26%

Kauno Žalgiris44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchKauno Žalgiris

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.46

FK Trakai

1.15

Kauno Žalgiris

1.46

Kauno Žalgiris creates 27% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 127 away

1.21

creates per match

1.46

1.47

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

FK Trakai

1.21

Kauno Žalgiris

1.46

allows per match

FK Trakai

1.47

Kauno Žalgiris

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

56%

FK Trakai or Kauno Žalgiris

74%

Draw or Kauno Žalgiris

70%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

12%

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

68%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

32%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

11%

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

77%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

43%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

40%

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 107 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 1.21 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.46 + FK Trakai defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Trakai scores more

30%

level

26%

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

44%

Kauno Žalgiris at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff