FK Trakai 3–3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius: Result & Stats

FK Trakai

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

3/7/2025

A Lyga · Round 2LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

FK Trakai23%

×Draw24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.67

FK Trakai

1.03

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.67

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 62% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 127 away

1.21

creates per match

1.87

1.47

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

FK Trakai

1.21

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.87

allows per match

FK Trakai

1.47

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

48%

FK Trakai or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

76%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

77%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

9%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

64%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

28%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

9%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

81%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

50%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

31%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 107 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 1.21 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + FK Trakai defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Trakai scores more

23%

level

24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

52%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff