FK Trakai 2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius: Result & Stats

FK Trakai

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

A. Lezama 79' (pen)

M. Grigaravičius 44'

A. Kaluđerović 52', 3'

8/20/2020

A Lyga · Round 16Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

FK Trakai23%

×Draw24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius53%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.69

FK Trakai

1.02

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.69

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 66% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 133 away

1.21

creates per match

1.93

1.45

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

FK Trakai

1.21

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.93

allows per match

FK Trakai

1.45

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

47%

FK Trakai or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

76%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

77%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

8%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

64%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

27%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

8%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

82%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

50%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

30%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 1.21 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.93 + FK Trakai defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FK Trakai scores more

23%

level

24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

53%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

11'

11'

16'

23'

23'

23'

44'

46'

D. Kodz← R. Šveikauskas

46'

R. Filipavicius← L. Traore

46'

52'

55'

71'

73'

73'

J. Marazas← M. Grigaravičius

77'

79'

A. LezamaPenalty

81'

J. Marazas

86'

T. Dombrauskis

86'

V. Jeriomenko← G. Paulauskas

88'

R. Filipavicius

90'

M. Vorobjovas

FK

12

5

15

31

26

88

▼

Kuklys

11

Vidémont

4

Vorobjova

10

▼

Kamenar

99

⚽2

7

88

33

5

▼

Šveikausk

18

Barauskas

30

⚽

Lezama

3

Malžinska

8

⚽

▼

Grigaravi

44

Dombrausk

10

▼

Traore

9

Kazlauska

19

▼

Paulauska

Manager: T. Pikkarainen

46'▲D. Kodz←▼R. Šveikauskas

46'▲R. Filipavicius←▼L. Traore

73'▲J. Marazas←▼M. Grigaravičius

86'▲V. Jeriomenko←▼G. Paulauskas

FK Trakai substitutes

11Kodz27Filipavicius50Marazas6Jeriomenko2Kalermo12Godwin13Masenzovas16Ramanauskas31Paukštė

Manager: A. Baga

46'▲K. Bolha←▼K. Kamenar

71'▲D. Šimkus←▼M. Kuklys

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

19Bolha33Šimkus1Gertmonas8Antal14Uzėla24Burba96Jarusevičius

A Lyga: FK Trakai 2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Trakai and FK Zalgiris Vilnius drew 2-2 in A Lyga on August 20, 2020.

Goals: A. Kaluđerović (3', 52'), M. Grigaravičius (44'), A. Lezama (79' pen).

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Trakai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: FK Trakai 2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius