FK Trakai 1–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius: Result & Stats

FK Trakai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

D. Kazlauskas 38' (pen)

T. Kiš 43'

9/21/2019

A Lyga · Round 24Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

FK Trakai22%

×Draw24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius54%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.73

FK Trakai

1.02

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.73

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 70% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 141 away

1.21

creates per match

2.02

1.45

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

FK Trakai

1.21

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.02

allows per match

FK Trakai

1.45

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

46%

FK Trakai or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

76%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

78%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

8%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

64%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

27%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

8%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

82%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

52%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

29%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.84 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 1.21 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.02 + FK Trakai defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Trakai scores more

22%

level

24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

54%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

V. Filipov← D. Slijngard

23'

K. Bolha

29'

T. Dombrauskis

30'

K. Uzela

38'

D. KazlauskasPenalty

43'

T. Kiš

50'

V. Filipov

65'

R. Sveikauskas

68'

J. Marazas← E. Baniulis

73'

H. Vidémont← K. Uzėla

75'

D. Kazlauskas

77'

P. Morer

81'

D. Kodz← D. Virkšas

86'

M. Ramanauskas← M. Grigaravičius

90'

S. Mikoliunas

FK

12

Berkovec

5

▼

6

19

13

7

4

14

▼

Uzėla

10

⚽

22

20

88

33

5

18

20

8

▼

Grigaravi

6

Jeriomenk

44

Dombrausk

24

▼

Virkšas

9

⚽

Kazlauska

19

▼

Baniulis

Manager: A. Rybak

68'▲J. Marazas←▼E. Baniulis

81'▲D. Kodz←▼D. Virkšas

86'▲M. Ramanauskas←▼M. Grigaravičius

FK Trakai substitutes

50Marazas14Kodz16Ramanauskas22Ališauskas99Šarkauskas13Masenzovas75Stočkūnas

Manager: João Martins

22'▲V. Filipov←▼D. Slijngard

73'▲H. Vidémont←▼K. Uzėla

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

11Filipov9Vidémont1Vitkauskas3Freidgeimas8Antal23Baravykas33Šimkus

Match Recap: FK Trakai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Trakai and FK Zalgiris Vilnius drew 1-1 in A Lyga on September 21, 2019.

Goals: D. Kazlauskas (38' pen), T. Kiš (43').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).

FK Trakai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Trakai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius