FK Trakai 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

FK Trakai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Džiugas Telšiai

P. Okende 84'

Vinícius Ribeiro 90+6' (pen)

5/21/2023

A Lyga · Round 14Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FK Trakai39%

×Draw26%

Džiugas Telšiai34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

FK Trakai

1.36

Džiugas Telšiai

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 100 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.49

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FK Trakai

1.20

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

FK Trakai

1.49

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

66%

FK Trakai or Džiugas Telšiai

74%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

61%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

18%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

74%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

39%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

16%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

71%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

36%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

53%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 1.20 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + FK Trakai defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Trakai scores more

39%

level

26%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

34%

FK Trakai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Trakai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

Vinícius Ribeiro← Aires Sousa

75'

Braima Candé← T. Rapalavičius

76'

M. Ramanauskas← D. Rimpa

76'

P. Okende← V. Borovskis

79'

L. Ankudinovas

84'

P. Okende

85'

Jardeu← J. Lubas

89'

B. Cande

90+4'

T. Dombrauskis

90+6'

Vinícius RibeiroPenalty

FK

Džiugas

1

Paukštė

13

▼

4

20

36

33

10

9

▼

Lubas

8

Pereira

76

▼

Sousa

24

Burba

1

Vitkauska

33

▼

4

8

10

44

5

19

7

17

▼

Rimpa

9

Popović

Manager: V. Janković

76'▲M. Ramanauskas←▼D. Rimpa

76'▲P. Okende←▼V. Borovskis

FK Trakai substitutes

16Ramanauskas25Okende2Stankevičius14Šveistrys15Andriuškevič23Palafoz71Petkevičius79Paulauskas99Šmatlák

Manager: João Prates

67'▲Vinícius Ribeiro←▼Aires Sousa

75'▲Braima Candé←▼T. Rapalavičius

85'▲Jardeu←▼J. Lubas

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

11Ribeiro6Candé99Jardeu2Mantinis22Mantinis23Jankauskas88Krivokapić94Paschoa

A Lyga: FK Trakai 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai

FK Trakai and Džiugas Telšiai drew 1-1 in A Lyga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: P. Okende (84'), Vinícius Ribeiro (90+6' pen).

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Trakai vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: FK Trakai 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai