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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey — Premier League 2025

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
Preview
13:00
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
9/17/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Centralnyj Stadion
Big match
46%
FK Tobol Kostanay
model favours
46%24%30%

71% of Yelimay Semey’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay46%
×Draw24%
Yelimay Semey30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.67
Yelimay Semey
1.30

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.86
Yelimay Semey
1.67

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
0.93
Yelimay Semey
1.48

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Yelimay Semey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
70%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Yelimay Semey
76%
Draw or Yelimay Semey
54%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
24%
Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
81%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
50%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
23%
Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
73%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
37%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
61%
Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.86 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yelimay Semey attack 1.67 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
46%
level
24%
Yelimay Semey scores more
30%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yelimay Semey have scored in 13 games running
  • Both teams score in 85% of Yelimay Semey’s matches
  • Yelimay Semey score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 24% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kostanay
WLWLW
Semey
DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Tobol Kostanay face Yelimay Semey (Premier League)

Premier League returns with FK Tobol Kostanay hosting Yelimay Semey. Match starts September 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FK Tobol Kostanay host Yelimay Semey at Centralnyj Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.