FK Tobol Kostanay 2–2 Kairat Almaty: Result & Stats

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kairat Almaty

Z. Tošić 72'

S. Maliy 45+2'

V. Vasiljev 90+7' (OG)

J. Kanté 8'

4/16/2022

Premier League · Round 6Tobyl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay40%

×Draw27%

Kairat Almaty33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchKairat Almaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.18

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.32

Kairat Almaty

1.18

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 12% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 82 away

1.69

creates per match

1.54

0.82

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.69

Kairat Almaty

1.54

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.82

Kairat Almaty

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Kairat Almaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

67%

FK Tobol Kostanay or Kairat Almaty

73%

Draw or Kairat Almaty

60%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

18%

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

73%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

38%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

15%

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

69%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

33%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

55%

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.82 · 88 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.69 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kairat Almaty attack 1.54 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

40%

level

27%

Kairat Almaty scores more

33%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Kanté

45+1'

J. Jaloliddinov

45+2'

S. Maliy

59'

D. Usenov← J. Jaloliddinov

72'

Z. Tošić

79'

G. Alykulov← S. Astanov

80'

A. Zhaksylykov← Z. Tošić

84'

Y. Seydakhmet

85'

A. Amanović← Ž. Tomašević

90+6'

A. Buranchiev

90+6'

D. Miroshnichenko← B. Kairov

90+7'

V. VasiljevOwn goal

FK4-2-3-1

Kairat3-4-1-2

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🥅

Manager: A. Moskalenko

80'▲A. Zhaksylykov←▼Z. Tošić

85'▲A. Amanović←▼Ž. Tomašević

90+6'▲D. Miroshnichenko←▼B. Kairov

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

ZhaksylykovAmanovićMiroshnichenkoNepogodovSemchenkovAsrankulovBusurmanovMuzhikovKulpeisovZhumashev

Manager: K. Berdyev

59'▲D. Usenov←▼J. Jaloliddinov

79'▲G. Alykulov←▼S. Astanov

Kairat Almaty substitutes

UsenovAlykulovAdakhajievKrachkovskiyTkachenkoKeilerShvyryovUljanov