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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau — Premier League 2025

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
Preview
12:00
Atyrau
Atyrau
7/26/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Centralnyj Stadion
Big match
56%
FK Tobol Kostanay
model favours
56%24%20%

Atyrau score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay56%
×Draw24%
Atyrau20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.69
Atyrau
0.90

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 88% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Atyrau
0.91

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
0.88
Atyrau
1.57

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Atyrau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
80%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Atyrau
76%
Draw or Atyrau
44%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
31%
Atyrau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
82%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
50%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
24%
Atyrau 1+ goals
59%
Atyrau 2+ goals
23%
Atyrau 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
74%
Atyrau (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Atyrau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.81 + Atyrau defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atyrau attack 0.91 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
56%
level
24%
Atyrau scores more
20%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Atyrau’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s matches
  • 24% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kostanay
WLWLW
Atyrau
LLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Tobol Kostanay face Atyrau (Premier League)

Premier League returns with FK Tobol Kostanay hosting Atyrau. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FK Tobol Kostanay host Atyrau at Centralnyj Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.