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FK Rabotnicki vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

FK Rabotnicki
FK Rabotnicki
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/14/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

FK Rabotnicki38%
×Draw28%
Vardar Skopje34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Rabotnicki
1.20
Vardar Skopje
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 78 away

creates per match

FK Rabotnicki
1.27
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

FK Rabotnicki
1.10
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Rabotnicki ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Rabotnicki or draw
66%
FK Rabotnicki or Vardar Skopje
72%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
62%

Winning margin

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+
16%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals
70%
FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals
34%
FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals
12%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
67%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
31%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)
53%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Rabotnicki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 107 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Rabotnicki attack 1.27 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Rabotnicki scores more
38%
level
28%
Vardar Skopje scores more
34%

FK Rabotnicki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Rabotnicki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Rabotnicki 2–0 Vardar Skopje

FK Rabotnicki beat Vardar Skopje 2-0 in First League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.