FK Rabotnicki 1–0 Renova: Result & Stats

FK Rabotnicki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Renova

N. Mishkovski 58' (OG)

10/4/2019

First League · Round 9Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FK Rabotnicki41%

×Draw27%

Renova32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK RabotnickiExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.15

FK Rabotnicki

1.34

Renova

1.15

FK Rabotnicki creates 17% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 52 away

1.27

creates per match

1.19

1.10

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FK Rabotnicki

1.27

Renova

1.19

allows per match

FK Rabotnicki

1.10

Renova

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Rabotnicki ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Rabotnicki or draw

68%

FK Rabotnicki or Renova

73%

Draw or Renova

59%

Winning margin

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+

19%

Renova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals

74%

FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals

39%

FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals

15%

Renova 1+ goals

68%

Renova 2+ goals

32%

Renova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)

56%

Renova (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Rabotnicki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 107 matches

Renova away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Rabotnicki attack 1.27 + Renova defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Renova attack 1.19 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Rabotnicki scores more

41%

level

27%

Renova scores more

32%

FK Rabotnicki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Rabotnicki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Jevtoski

45'

B. Velija

49'

F. Kadriu← B. Miovski

52'

A. Sefo← J. Selmani

57'

A. Aliu

58'

N. MishkovskiOwn goal

60'

A. Veliu← S. Fetai

66'

I. Markovic

81'

D. Todorovski← S. Jevtoski

84'

B. Sadiki

85'

K. Ackovski← I. Marković

89'

S. Krstevski← P. Petkovski

90'

D. Toshevski

FK

Renova

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Vlaho

81'▲D. Todorovski←▼S. Jevtoski

85'▲K. Ackovski←▼I. Marković

89'▲S. Krstevski←▼P. Petkovski

FK Rabotnicki substitutes

TodorovskiAckovskiKrstevski

Manager: B. Islami

49'▲F. Kadriu←▼B. Miovski

52'▲A. Sefo←▼J. Selmani

60'▲A. Veliu←▼S. Fetai

Renova substitutes

KadriuSefoVeliu

First League: FK Rabotnicki 1–0 Renova

FK Rabotnicki beat Renova 1-0 in First League on October 4, 2019.

Goals: N. Mishkovski (58' o.g.).

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.

FK Rabotnicki vs Renova — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: FK Rabotnicki 1–0 Renova