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FK Partizan vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
11/25/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 16Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

FK Partizan52%
×Draw23%
TSC Backa Topola25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.77
TSC Backa Topola
1.16

FK Partizan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 125 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
75%
FK Partizan or TSC Backa Topola
77%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
48%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
28%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
83%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
53%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
26%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
69%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
32%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
67%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.77

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Partizan scores more
52%
level
23%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
25%

FK Partizan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Partizan vs TSC Backa Topola

TSC Backa Topola beat FK Partizan 4-0 in Super Liga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.