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FK Partizan vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
2/26/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 23Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

FK Partizan63%
×Draw22%
Proleter Novi SAD15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.90
Proleter Novi SAD
0.80

FK Partizan creates 137% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 72 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
85%
FK Partizan or Proleter Novi SAD
78%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
37%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
38%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
85%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
56%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
29%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
55%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
19%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
81%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.90

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Partizan scores more
63%
level
22%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
15%

FK Partizan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Partizan 3–1 Proleter Novi SAD

FK Partizan beat Proleter Novi SAD 3-1 in Super Liga on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.