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FK Neftekhimik vs Tekstilshchik — First League 2024

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
Preview
15:00
Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
8/1/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Neftekhimik Stadium
Big match
56%
FK Neftekhimik
model favours
56%28%17%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
35%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Neftekhimik56%
×Draw28%
Tekstilshchik17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.40
Tekstilshchik
0.63

FK Neftekhimik creates 122% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 4 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.05
Tekstilshchik
0.25

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.75

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Tekstilshchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
83%
FK Neftekhimik or Tekstilshchik
72%
Draw or Tekstilshchik
44%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
28%
Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
75%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
41%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
17%
Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
47%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
13%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
77%
Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.05 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tekstilshchik attack 0.25 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
56%
level
28%
Tekstilshchik scores more
17%

FK Neftekhimik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Neftekhimik
LDWDW
Tekstilshchik
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Neftekhimik host Tekstilshchik

August 1, 2026: FK Neftekhimik take on Tekstilshchik in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FK Neftekhimik host Tekstilshchik at Neftekhimik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.