FK Neftekhimik 4–0 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tekstilshchik

I. Kubyshkin 72'

M. Uridia 61'

D. Klenkin 54'

I. Agapov 31'

9/23/2020

First League · Round 11Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FK Neftekhimik54%

×Draw26%

Tekstilshchik20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.82

FK Neftekhimik

1.52

Tekstilshchik

0.82

FK Neftekhimik creates 85% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 53 away

1.32

creates per match

0.68

0.96

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.32

Tekstilshchik

0.68

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.96

Tekstilshchik

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

80%

FK Neftekhimik or Tekstilshchik

74%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

46%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

28%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

78%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

45%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

20%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

56%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

20%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

73%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 121 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.32 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tekstilshchik attack 0.68 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

54%

level

26%

Tekstilshchik scores more

20%

FK Neftekhimik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

31'

41'

46'

46'

I. Kubyshkin← M. Yakovlev

46'

E. Popov← V. Romanenko

54'

D. Klenkin

55'

E. Marichev← V. Sysuev

56'

Aleksandr Solodkov

56'

M. Sidorov← I. Moseychuk

61'

M. Uridia

64'

A. Yushin← I. Petrov

71'

A. Semenov← A. Lelyukaev

72'

I. Kubyshkin

73'

A. Shlenkin← E. Popov

74'

V. Alshanskiy← M. Bachinskiy

76'

B. Davlatov← P. Shadrin

85'

Merabi Uridia

FK4-3-3

Tekstilshchik4-2-3-1

71

▼

Bachinski

76

Ageev

77

▼

Romanenko

69

▼

Moseychuk

8

Solodkov

21

Batov

10

▼

7

95

17

1

27

21

51

⚽

Agapov

22

▼

Lelyukaev

5

Potapov

7

▼

Shadrin

2

Sitdikov

14

⚽

Klenkin

97

▼

Kotik

89

▼

Yakovlev

95

▼

Petrov

Manager: Y. Utkulbaev

46'▲M. Uridia←▼A. Kotik

46'▲I. Kubyshkin←▼M. Yakovlev

64'▲A. Yushin←▼I. Petrov

71'▲A. Semenov←▼A. Lelyukaev

76'▲B. Davlatov←▼P. Shadrin

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

10Uridia96Kubyshkin37Yushin4Semenov11Davlatov3Kaykov18Isupov80Mikushin91Osipov

Manager: S. Pavlov

46'▲E. Popov←▼V. Romanenko

55'▲E. Marichev←▼V. Sysuev

56'▲M. Sidorov←▼I. Moseychuk

73'▲A. Shlenkin←▼E. Popov

74'▲V. Alshanskiy←▼M. Bachinskiy

Tekstilshchik substitutes

19Popov22Marichev11Sidorov37Shlenkin20Alshanskiy16Kiselev18Mukhametzyanov23Makushkin