FK Neftekhimik 3–2 Ska-khabarovsk: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ska-khabarovsk

D. Khubaev 70'

I. Petrov 68' (pen)

M. Uridia 44'

M. Martusevich 90+3' (pen), 79' (pen)

5/8/2021

First League · Round 41Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

FK Neftekhimik46%

×Draw27%

Ska-khabarovsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.01

FK Neftekhimik

1.39

Ska-khabarovsk

1.01

FK Neftekhimik creates 38% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 142 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

0.95

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.32

Ska-khabarovsk

1.07

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Ska-khabarovsk

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

73%

FK Neftekhimik or Ska-khabarovsk

73%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

54%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

22%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

75%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

40%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

16%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

64%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

27%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

63%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.32 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

46%

level

27%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

27%

FK Neftekhimik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet

30'

35'

42'

44'

46'

I. Kalachev← R. Denisov

46'

I. Petrov← L. Potapov

46'

Y. Pershin← V. Nikiforov

47'

55'

64'

65'

66'

68'

I. PetrovPenalty

70'

D. Khubaev

72'

A. Maleev← S. Georgievskiy

72'

V. Bragin← E. Bulia

75'

M. Kanaev← D. Khubaev

77'

M. Sitdikov← A. Yushin

79'

M. MartusevichPenalty

82'

82'

90'

90'

90+3'

M. MartusevichPenalty

FK4-1-4-1

Ska-khabarovsk3-4-3

37

▼

Bulia

20

Kolesnich

9

▼

Georgievs

24

⚽2

Martusevi

33

Kvekveski

10

▼

51

5

27

15

93

18

12

44

5

▼

Potapov

94

Pervushin

21

Galiulin

37

▼

Yushin

10

⚽

▼

Uridia

13

⚽

▼

Khubaev

14

Klenkin

29

▼

Denisov

Manager: K. Novikov

46'▲I. Kalachev←▼R. Denisov

46'▲I. Petrov←▼L. Potapov

75'▲M. Kanaev←▼D. Khubaev

77'▲M. Sitdikov←▼A. Yushin

90'▲A. Kotik←▼M. Uridia

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

54Kalachev95Petrov17Kanaev2Sitdikov97Kotik4Semenov9Alekperov11Davlatov22Lelyukaev27Golubev88Artemchuk89Yakovlev

Manager: S. Yuran

46'▲Y. Pershin←▼V. Nikiforov

72'▲A. Maleev←▼S. Georgievskiy

72'▲V. Bragin←▼E. Bulia

Ska-khabarovsk substitutes

30Pershin8Maleev19Bragin18Ivankov48Taraduda50Sugrobov72Batyutin

First League: FK Neftekhimik 3–2 Ska-khabarovsk

FK Neftekhimik beat Ska-khabarovsk 3-2 in First League on May 8, 2021.

Goals: M. Uridia (44'), I. Petrov (68' pen), D. Khubaev (70'), M. Martusevich (79' pen, 90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.

FK Neftekhimik vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: FK Neftekhimik 3–2 Ska-khabarovsk