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FK Neftekhimik vs Enisey — First League 2024

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
Preview
16:00
Enisey
Enisey
3/20/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Neftekhimik Stadium
Big match
42%
FK Neftekhimik
model favours
42%28%30%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

FK Neftekhimik42%
×Draw28%
Enisey30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.28
Enisey
1.02

FK Neftekhimik creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.10
Enisey
1.03

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Enisey
1.46

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
70%
FK Neftekhimik or Enisey
72%
Draw or Enisey
58%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
19%
Enisey wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
72%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
37%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
14%
Enisey 1+ goals
64%
Enisey 2+ goals
27%
Enisey 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
59%
Enisey (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.10 + Enisey defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Enisey attack 1.03 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
42%
level
28%
Enisey scores more
30%

FK Neftekhimik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neftekhimik
LDWDW
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Neftekhimik host Enisey

March 20, 2027: FK Neftekhimik take on Enisey in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FK Neftekhimik host Enisey at Neftekhimik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.