FK Neftekhimik 1–1 Chayka: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chayka

D. Khubaev 60'

V. Khozin 79'

8/1/2020

First League · Round 1Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FK Neftekhimik49%

×Draw27%

Chayka25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.95

FK Neftekhimik

1.45

Chayka

0.95

FK Neftekhimik creates 53% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 65 away

1.32

creates per match

0.94

0.97

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.32

Chayka

0.94

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.97

Chayka

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

75%

FK Neftekhimik or Chayka

73%

Draw or Chayka

51%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

24%

Chayka wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

77%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

42%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

18%

Chayka 1+ goals

61%

Chayka 2+ goals

25%

Chayka 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

66%

Chayka (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 120 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.32 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chayka attack 0.94 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

49%

level

27%

Chayka scores more

25%

FK Neftekhimik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

30'

37'

39'

60'

67'

69'

N. Glushkov← E. Degtyarev

73'

A. Lelyukaev

75'

M. Zemskov← D. Klenkin

79'

V. Khozin

82'

V. Aleynikov← I. Leontjev

82'

I. Belous← A. Khokhlachev

90+2'

D. Kaykov← M. Uridia

90'

A. Kotik← A. Semenov

FK

Chayka

47

Filippov

29

⚽

92

91

97

5

13

▼

Degtyarev

52

▼

Leontjev

11

Palienko

10

Savichev

7

▼

27

17

5

4

▼

Semenov

12

Shiryaev

22

Lelyukaev

14

▼

Klenkin

2

Sitdikov

13

⚽

Khubaev

95

Petrov

10

▼

Uridia

Manager: Y. Utkulbaev

75'▲M. Zemskov←▼D. Klenkin

90+2'▲D. Kaykov←▼M. Uridia

90'▲A. Kotik←▼A. Semenov

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

8Zemskov3Kaykov97Kotik18Isupov37Yushin51Agapov80Mikushin89Yakovlev

Manager: M. Adiev

69'▲N. Glushkov←▼E. Degtyarev

82'▲V. Aleynikov←▼I. Leontjev

82'▲I. Belous←▼A. Khokhlachev

Chayka substitutes

23Glushkov38Aleynikov88Belous1Yunusov8Kartashov22Uzhgin34Tumasyan69Lazarev99Volodkin