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FK Mladost Podgorica vs Mladost Lješkopolje — First League 2019

FK Mladost Podgorica
FK Mladost Podgorica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
10/26/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion FK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FK Mladost Podgorica32%
×Draw30%
Mladost Lješkopolje37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Mladost Podgorica
0.98
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08

Mladost Lješkopolje creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

FK Mladost Podgorica
0.71
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.94

allows per match

FK Mladost Podgorica
1.23
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.25

finishing

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Mladost Podgorica ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Mladost Podgorica or draw
63%
FK Mladost Podgorica or Mladost Lješkopolje
70%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
68%

Winning margin

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+
12%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals
62%
FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals
26%
FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals
8%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)
46%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Mladost Podgorica at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.71 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 0.94 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more
32%
level
30%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
37%

Mladost Lješkopolje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mladost Lješkopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Mladost Podgorica 1–2 Mladost Lješkopolje

Mladost Lješkopolje beat FK Mladost Podgorica 2-1 in First League on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost in Podgorica.