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FK Liepaja vs Jelgava — Virsliga 2019

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jelgava
Jelgava
5/17/2019VirsligaVirsliga · Round 13Stadions Daugava (Liepāja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Liepaja50%
×Draw25%
Jelgava25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Liepaja
1.64
Jelgava
1.09

FK Liepaja creates 50% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 29 away

creates per match

FK Liepaja
1.61
Jelgava
0.83

allows per match

FK Liepaja
1.36
Jelgava
1.66

finishing

FK Liepaja+0.00on par
Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Liepaja ↓

Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Liepaja or draw
75%
FK Liepaja or Jelgava
75%
Draw or Jelgava
50%

Winning margin

FK Liepaja wins by 2+
27%
Jelgava wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Liepaja 1+ goals
81%
FK Liepaja 2+ goals
49%
FK Liepaja 3+ goals
23%
Jelgava 1+ goals
66%
Jelgava 2+ goals
30%
Jelgava 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)
66%
Jelgava (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Liepaja at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

Jelgava away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Liepaja attack 1.61 + Jelgava defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Jelgava attack 0.83 + FK Liepaja defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Liepaja scores more
50%
level
25%
Jelgava scores more
25%

FK Liepaja at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Liepaja vs Jelgava

FK Liepaja beat Jelgava 1-0 in Virsliga on May 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions Daugava (Liepāja).