FK Kukesi 1–0 Luftetari Gjirokaster: Result & Stats

FK Kukesi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luftetari Gjirokaster

9/29/2018

Superliga · Round 6Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FK Kukesi56%

×Draw25%

Luftetari Gjirokaster20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KukesiExpected goals in this matchLuftetari Gjirokaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.85

FK Kukesi

1.63

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.85

FK Kukesi creates 92% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 36 away

1.19

creates per match

0.75

0.95

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

FK Kukesi

1.19

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.75

allows per match

FK Kukesi

0.95

Luftetari Gjirokaster

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw

80%

FK Kukesi or Luftetari Gjirokaster

75%

Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster

44%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

30%

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

80%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

48%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

22%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals

57%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals

21%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

74%

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 108 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.19 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + FK Kukesi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Kukesi scores more

56%

level

25%

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more

20%

FK Kukesi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff