FK Jablonec 1–2 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

FK Jablonec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Praha

10/20/2024

Czech Liga · Round 12Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec37%

×Draw26%

Slavia Praha37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK JablonecExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.36

FK Jablonec

1.37

Slavia Praha

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

1.72

creates per match

1.67

1.05

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

FK Jablonec

1.72

Slavia Praha

1.67

allows per match

FK Jablonec

1.05

Slavia Praha

1.02

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.32scores less

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw

63%

FK Jablonec or Slavia Praha

74%

Draw or Slavia Praha

63%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

17%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

75%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

40%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

16%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

74%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

39%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

50%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.72 + Slavia Praha defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.37

Slavia Praha attack 1.67 + FK Jablonec defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Jablonec scores more

37%

level

26%

Slavia Praha scores more

37%

FK Jablonec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff