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FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
J. Chramosta 73'
M. Polidar 55'
I. Traoré 61'
J. Hanuš 51' (OG)
M. Usor 7'
8/14/2022Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 3Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec37%
×Draw25%
Slavia Praha37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.39
Slavia Praha
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.72
Slavia Praha
1.70

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.05
Slavia Praha
1.06

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.32scores less
Slavia Praha+0.12scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
63%
FK Jablonec or Slavia Praha
75%
Draw or Slavia Praha
63%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
17%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
75%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
40%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
16%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
75%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
40%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
50%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.72 + Slavia Praha defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Slavia Praha attack 1.70 + FK Jablonec defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
37%
level
25%
Slavia Praha scores more
37%

FK Jablonec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Michal Surzyn
7'
M. Usor
24'
Vladimir Jovović
34'
Ivan Schranz
37'
Václav Sejk
46'
I. Traoré← I. Schranz
46'
D. Šmiga← M. Usor
51'
J. HanušOwn goal
55'
M. Polidar
60'
T. Holeš← T. Kacharaba
61'
I. Traoré↳ P. Ševčík
64'
J. Hromada← P. Ševčík
65'
M. Černák← V. Jovović
66'
J. Chramosta← V. Sejk
72'
V. Kubista← D. Houska
73'
J. Chramosta↳ P. Šulc
78'
P. Olayinka← L. Masopust
87'
T. Malínský← P. Šulc
90+5'
Aleš Mandous

Shots

8FK

Statistics

FKSlavia
Overview
8Total Shots17
3Corners7
9Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots17
4On Target11
3Off Target2
1Blocked4
Goalkeeping
9Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Czech Liga: FK Jablonec 2–3 Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 3-2 in Czech Liga on August 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Usor (7'), J. Hanuš (51' o.g.), M. Polidar (55'), I. Traoré (61'), J. Chramosta (73').

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou.