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FK Becej vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
2 – 1
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
10/2/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

FK Becej47%
×Draw24%
Radnički Zrenjanin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.73
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.32

FK Becej creates 31% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 87 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
71%
FK Becej or Radnički Zrenjanin
76%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
53%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
25%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
82%
FK Becej 2+ goals
52%
FK Becej 3+ goals
25%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
73%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
38%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
62%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Becej scores more
47%
level
24%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
29%

FK Becej at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Radnički Zrenjanin

FK Becej beat Radnički Zrenjanin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.