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FK Becej vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
4 – 1
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

FK Becej48%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.73
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.29

FK Becej creates 34% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 78 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.03

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.78

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
71%
FK Becej or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
52%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
26%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
82%
FK Becej 2+ goals
52%
FK Becej 3+ goals
25%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
72%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
37%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
62%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Becej scores more
48%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
29%

FK Becej at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

FK Becej beat Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.