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Fjolnir vs Thróttur Vogar — 2. Deild 2025

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
Preview
14:00
Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
9/5/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 21
52%
Fjolnir
model favours
52%20%27%

Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjolnir52%
×Draw20%
Thróttur Vogar27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
2.27
Thróttur Vogar
1.61

Fjolnir creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
2.67
Thróttur Vogar
1.72

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.50
Thróttur Vogar
1.88

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Thróttur Vogar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
73%
Fjolnir or Thróttur Vogar
80%
Draw or Thróttur Vogar
48%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
32%
Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
90%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
66%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
39%
Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
80%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
48%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
66%
Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.27

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.72 + Fjolnir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fjolnir scores more
52%
level
20%
Thróttur Vogar scores more
27%

Fjolnir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
  • Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running
  • Thróttur Vogar score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Fjolnir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fjolnir
WDLDD
Vogar
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fjolnir face Thróttur Vogar (2. Deild)

2. Deild returns with Fjolnir hosting Thróttur Vogar. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.