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Fjolnir vs Hvíti riddarinn — 2. Deild 2025

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
Preview
18:00
Hvíti riddarinn
Hvíti riddarinn
8/28/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 20
60%
Fjolnir
model favours
60%20%20%

Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjolnir60%
×Draw20%
Hvíti riddarinn20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
2.25
Hvíti riddarinn
1.25

Fjolnir creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
2.67
Hvíti riddarinn
1.00

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.83

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Hvíti riddarinn+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Hvíti riddarinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
80%
Fjolnir or Hvíti riddarinn
80%
Draw or Hvíti riddarinn
40%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
37%
Hvíti riddarinn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
89%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
65%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
39%
Hvíti riddarinn 1+ goals
71%
Hvíti riddarinn 2+ goals
36%
Hvíti riddarinn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
74%
Hvíti riddarinn (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hvíti riddarinn away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Hvíti riddarinn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hvíti riddarinn attack 1.00 + Fjolnir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fjolnir scores more
60%
level
20%
Hvíti riddarinn scores more
20%

Fjolnir at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
  • Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Fjolnir’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fjolnir
WDLDD
riddarinn
DDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fjolnir face Hvíti riddarinn (2. Deild)

2. Deild returns with Fjolnir hosting Hvíti riddarinn. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.