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Fjolnir vs Haukar — 2. Deild 2025

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
Preview
19:15
Haukar
Haukar
7/24/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 14
50%
Fjolnir
model favours
50%21%29%

Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjolnir50%
×Draw21%
Haukar29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
2.15
Haukar
1.59

Fjolnir creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
2.67
Haukar
1.68

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.50
Haukar
1.64

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Haukar+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Haukar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
71%
Fjolnir or Haukar
79%
Draw or Haukar
50%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
30%
Haukar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
88%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
63%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
36%
Haukar 1+ goals
80%
Haukar 2+ goals
47%
Haukar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
64%
Haukar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Haukar away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Haukar defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.15

Haukar attack 1.68 + Fjolnir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fjolnir scores more
50%
level
21%
Haukar scores more
29%

Fjolnir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
  • Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 80% over 2.5)
  • 80% of Haukar’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haukar score first in only 30% of matches
  • 73% of Fjolnir’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fjolnir
WDLDD
Haukar
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fjolnir face Haukar (2. Deild)

2. Deild returns with Fjolnir hosting Haukar. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.