Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

Fjolnir

Preview

18:00

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

8/19/2026

2. Deild · Round 18

56%

Fjolnir

model favours

56%19%24%

Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

75%

over 2.5 goals

72%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjolnir56%

×Draw19%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchFjardabyggd / Leiknir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.55

Fjolnir

2.41

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

1.55

Fjolnir creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

2.67

creates per match

1.60

1.50

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Fjolnir

2.67

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

1.60

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.50

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

76%

Fjolnir or Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

81%

Draw or Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

44%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

35%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

91%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

69%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

43%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1+ goals

79%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 2+ goals

46%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

70%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Fjardabyggd / Leiknir defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.41

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir attack 1.60 + Fjolnir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fjolnir scores more

56%

level

19%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir scores more

24%

Fjolnir at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running
73% of Fjolnir’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Fjolnir

WDLDD

Leiknir

DWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff