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Fjardabyggd vs Thróttur Vogar — 2. Deild 2018

Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
FT
2 – 2
Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
7/14/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 11Eskjuvöllur (Eskifjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Fjardabyggd35%
×Draw22%
Thróttur Vogar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd
1.66
Thróttur Vogar
1.87

Thróttur Vogar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 81 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd
1.65
Thróttur Vogar
1.83

allows per match

Fjardabyggd
1.91
Thróttur Vogar
1.67

finishing

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par
Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd ↓

Thróttur Vogar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd or draw
57%
Fjardabyggd or Thróttur Vogar
78%
Draw or Thróttur Vogar
65%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
17%
Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
81%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
49%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
23%
Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
85%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
56%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
45%
Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd attack 1.65 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.83 + Fjardabyggd defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fjardabyggd scores more
35%
level
22%
Thróttur Vogar scores more
43%

Thróttur Vogar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Fjardabyggd 2–2 Thróttur Vogar

Fjardabyggd and Thróttur Vogar drew 2-2 in 2. Deild on July 14, 2018.

The match was played at Eskjuvöllur (Eskifjörður).