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Firpo vs Águila — Primera Division 2019

Firpo
Firpo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Águila
Águila
11/26/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 22Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Firpo38%
×Draw30%
Águila32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Firpo
1.12
Águila
0.99

Firpo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 153 away

creates per match

Firpo
1.33
Águila
1.11

allows per match

Firpo
0.86
Águila
0.91

finishing

Firpo+0.00on par
Águila+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Firpo ↓

Águila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Firpo or draw
68%
Firpo or Águila
70%
Draw or Águila
62%

Winning margin

Firpo wins by 2+
16%
Águila wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Firpo 1+ goals
67%
Firpo 2+ goals
31%
Firpo 3+ goals
10%
Águila 1+ goals
63%
Águila 2+ goals
26%
Águila 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Firpo (draw refunded)
55%
Águila (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Firpo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 131 matches

Águila away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Firpo attack 1.33 + Águila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Águila attack 1.11 + Firpo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Firpo scores more
38%
level
30%
Águila scores more
32%

Firpo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Firpo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Firpo 2–0 Águila

Firpo beat Águila 2-0 in Primera Division on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera in Usulután.