Fiorentino 3–1 Faetano: Result & Stats

Fiorentino

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Faetano

M. Baizan 70'

S. Radoi 11', 4'

F. Gori 65'

10/21/2020

Coppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fiorentino48%

×Draw23%

Faetano29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinoExpected goals in this matchFaetano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.36

Fiorentino

1.79

Faetano

1.36

Fiorentino creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

0.43

2.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fiorentino

1.57

Faetano

0.43

allows per match

Fiorentino

2.29

Faetano

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentino+0.00on par

Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentino ↓

Faetano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Fiorentino or draw

71%

Fiorentino or Faetano

77%

Draw or Faetano

52%

Winning margin

Fiorentino wins by 2+

26%

Faetano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fiorentino 1+ goals

83%

Fiorentino 2+ goals

53%

Fiorentino 3+ goals

26%

Faetano 1+ goals

74%

Faetano 2+ goals

39%

Faetano 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentino (draw refunded)

62%

Faetano (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentino at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Faetano away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentino attack 1.57 + Faetano defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Faetano attack 0.43 + Fiorentino defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fiorentino scores more

48%

level

23%

Faetano scores more

29%

Fiorentino at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fiorentino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Radoi

11'

S. Radoi

43'

L. Balestra← S. Radoi

52'

F. Gori← F. Palladino

57'

A. Grilli← G. Dominella

63'

M. Baizan← S. Paoloni

63'

N. Generali← C. Enrico

65'

F. Gori

70'

M. Baizan

Fiorentino

Faetano

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Radoi

Pacchioni

Manager: E. Malandri

43'▲L. Balestra←▼S. Radoi

63'▲M. Baizan←▼S. Paoloni

63'▲N. Generali←▼C. Enrico

Fiorentino substitutes

BalestraBaizanGeneraliTerenziBerardiEros

Manager: F. Fabiani

52'▲F. Gori←▼F. Palladino

57'▲A. Grilli←▼G. Dominella

Faetano substitutes

GoriGrilliBarrettaZaghiniMoroniValleGuidi