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Fiorentino vs Faetano — League #404 2026

Fiorentino
Fiorentino
CANC
00:00
Faetano
Faetano
4/4/2020League #404League #404 · 2nd Stage - 13Stadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fiorentino42%
×Draw25%
Faetano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentino
1.55
Faetano
1.36

Fiorentino creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fiorentino
1.00
Faetano
1.20

allows per match

Fiorentino
1.53
Faetano
2.11

finishing

Fiorentino+0.00on par
Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentino ↓

Faetano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fiorentino or draw
67%
Fiorentino or Faetano
75%
Draw or Faetano
58%

Winning margin

Fiorentino wins by 2+
21%
Faetano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fiorentino 1+ goals
79%
Fiorentino 2+ goals
46%
Fiorentino 3+ goals
20%
Faetano 1+ goals
74%
Faetano 2+ goals
39%
Faetano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentino (draw refunded)
56%
Faetano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentino at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Faetano away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentino attack 1.00 + Faetano defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

Faetano attack 1.20 + Fiorentino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fiorentino scores more
42%
level
25%
Faetano scores more
33%

Fiorentino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fiorentino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fiorentino host Faetano

April 4, 2020: Fiorentino take on Faetano in League #404. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fiorentino host Faetano at Stadio di Domagnano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.