Fiorentina 0–1 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Torino

A. Miranchuk 33'

1/21/2023

Serie A · Round 19Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Fiorentina48%

×Draw26%

Torino26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Fiorentina

1.50

Torino

1.02

Fiorentina creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

1.70

creates per match

1.01

1.04

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Torino

1.01

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.04

Torino

1.29

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.56scores less

Torino+0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

74%

Fiorentina or Torino

74%

Draw or Torino

52%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

24%

Torino wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

78%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

44%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

19%

Torino 1+ goals

64%

Torino 2+ goals

27%

Torino 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

65%

Torino (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Torino defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Torino attack 1.01 + Fiorentina defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fiorentina scores more

48%

level

26%

Torino scores more

26%

Fiorentina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

V. Milinković-Savić

Torino · G

8.2

Match Events

33'

A. Miranchuk↳ M. Vojvoda

45'

Riccardo Saponara

45'

Samuele Ricci

46'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

50'

Alfred Duncan

54'

N. González← R. Saponara

54'

69'

70'

72'

81'

87'

A. Bianco← G. Bonaventura

88'

Antonio Sanabria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaTorino

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots9

1.22Expected Goals (xG)0.57

5Corners3

9Fouls23

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target3

8Off Target3

6Blocked3

14Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

554Total Passes347

469Accurate Passes258

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls23

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides6