Fiorentina 2–1 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Torino

8/28/2021

Serie A · Round 2Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Fiorentina49%

×Draw26%

Torino25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.01

Fiorentina

1.50

Torino

1.01

Fiorentina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

1.70

creates per match

1.01

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Torino

1.01

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Torino

1.30

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

75%

Fiorentina or Torino

74%

Draw or Torino

51%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

24%

Torino wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

78%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

44%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

19%

Torino 1+ goals

64%

Torino 2+ goals

27%

Torino 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

66%

Torino (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Torino attack 1.01 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fiorentina scores more

49%

level

26%

Torino scores more

25%

Fiorentina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff